Fixed vs Variable

The recent U.S. tariffs have introduced major uncertainty into the Canadian economy. The result has left many homeowners asking a critical question: is now the right time to lock in a variable-rate mortgage? It's a contradictory picture, with fears of rising inflation bumping up against the reality of falling bond yields. This makes the decision between fixed and variable mortgage rates tricky for homeowners, those renewing, and new buyers alike.

.: Why Inflation Might Creep Up

A major worry is that new U.S. tariffs, along with Canadian counter-tariffs, could make everyday goods more expensive. Projections from the Bank of Canada, OECD, The Conference Board of Canada and TD Economics have all outlined expected inflation rates of around 3% or higher for 2025.

Higher inflation makes the Bank of Canada's job tougher. If prices rise quickly and stay high, the Bank of Canada might have to pause expected rate cuts or even raise rates again, which would directly increase payments for those with variable-rate mortgages.

.: The Twist: Why Fixed Rates Might Dip (For Now)

Confusingly, the same tariff threats sparking inflation worries can also make fixed mortgage rates cheaper, at least temporarily. Here's how:

Tariff talks create economic jitters. When investors get nervous, they often pull money out of riskier investments (like stocks) and seek safety investing in government bonds instead.

Bond Yields Drop: This increased demand for bonds pushes their yield down. We've seen this happen recently, with key bond yields in the U.S. and Canada falling.

Fixed Rates Follow: Government of Canada bond yields are a major influence on fixed mortgage rates in Canada. When yields drop, fixed mortgage rates tend to follow, often within a few weeks.

So, we have a strange situation where tariff fears could push variable rates higher eventually (due to inflation) but might push fixed rates lower in the short term (due to market fear).

.: Will Higher Inflation Stick Around This Time?

A big question is whether any inflation jump caused by tariffs will be a short-term blip or something more lasting. During the pandemic, inflation stuck around partly because of the massive government support programs. This time might be different as there isn't the same level of government stimulus.

This could mean businesses and workers have less power to keep pushing prices and wages up in a cycle. The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve seem to recognize this and have suggested they won't overreact to the initial price bumps from tariffs.

.: Locking In vs. Staying Variable: Your Call

With all these crossed signals, deciding what's right for your mortgage depends on your personal situation and comfort level with risk.

Consider Locking In:

- If your job seems insecure, but you still have some household income (e.g., from a spouse), then locking in can provide stability in uncertain times.

- If financial stability and predictable payments are more important to you than potentially saving a bit with variable rates, it may be wise to lock in — better to be safe in an unsafe environment.

Consider Staying Variable:

- If you're in no immediate rush. Fixed mortgage rates are likely to get better in the coming weeks due to falling bond yields. Waiting could lead to a more favourable lock-in rate.

- If you're not at high risk of default or disruption and you can handle a bit of short-term rate fluctuation, you might be better off riding out the current environment a little longer.

.: Making Your Move

The key is not to make a rushed decision based purely on fear. The situation is still unfolding.

Watch Fixed Rates: Since bond yields have dropped, keep an eye on fixed mortgage rates over the next few weeks – they might improve.

Check Your Budget & Risk Tolerance: How much could your payment increase before it becomes stressful?

Talk to Your Lender: Before considering switching lenders, ask your current lender what fixed rate they would offer you to convert your variable mortgage. This conversion is often simple and avoids penalty fees and legal costs. Compare their offer to the wider market.

The next few months will bring more clarity. How tariffs are implemented, the economy's performance and the Bank of Canada's actions will shape the best path forward. While immediate, sharp rate hikes seem unlikely right now, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain.

As a mortgage agent I'm here to help you make sense of these changes and find the mortgage strategy that best fits your needs and financial future. Never hesitate to reach out to me if you have any questions.